USD/INR – 17 July 2017

Price action has been low over the past few months. Prices are stuck between roughly 64 and 65 despite a further rise in stock prices. USD weakness versus most FX majors is also visible in INR. Nevertheless, the near term outlook remains roughly the same: expect a bounce up to about 66.55 or max 67.90. The medium term remains difficult: is the market engaged in a complex multi-year counter trend phase...

WTI Crude – 20 June 2017

The longer term remains unchanged: relatively neutral between 42 on the downside and 54.40 on the upside. Whether this rather volatile trading range-like pattern is part of a basing formation or merely a pause within the long-term down trend is not yet clear. The near term outlook is negative, especially now that prices have reached the main support area and sellers are hardly showing any respite....

USD/INR – 15 June 2017

Buyers have gained a foothold making a first notable recovery likely after the nearly 8% drop since late last year. Expect a bounce up to roughly 66.55 or max 67.90 over the next days and weeks.   The medium term is more difficult to discern. Is the market engaged in a complex multi-year counter trend phase (correction in uptrend) or base building before a long-term trend reversal (i.e. bearish)?...

WTI Crude – 31 May 2017

A clear direction is lacking on the weekly charts. Rough boundaries come in at 42 on the downside and 54.40 on the upside. Whether this rather volatile trading range-like pattern is part of a basing formation or merely a pause within the long-term down trend is not yet clear. For the near term the outlook is somewhat negative. The lack of demand to breach the 54-zone in combination with lack lustre...

USD/INR – 18 May 2017

A minor recovery as a reaction to the recent sell-off is expected. Such a bounce does not alter the near-term bearish bias as long as the zone 66.55 holds out as first resistance. Focus is on the 63.50 and 60.75 zones for the next ~3 months. The medium term is more difficult to discern. Aforementioned declines could be part of a complex multi-year counter trend phase (correction in uptrend) or it...

Copper – 7 March 2017

Copper is getting clubbed today on low China growth and strong inventory growth. The outlook has been rather fragile over the past few days, but with today’s move there is no question about the near term direction: down. Focus is on roughly 2.43 at first.  Below that a near term projection comes in around 2.3450. However, the outlook on the longer term does not look too bad. Any near term...

USD/INR – 9 Feb 2017

Not too much is happening in the FX market. Prices are falling back within the broader trading range 66.00<>68.75. Down side risk is rather limited for now: substantial support i found between 66.25 and 66-even. Only a convincing break below this area can alter the neutral outlook on the medium term and longer term charts. As of yet, there is no major evidence such a break is likely. Avoid...

BBRG Commodity Index – 24 Nov 2016

The medium to longer term outlook is quite bullish. Although price action since April has been lack lustre, this trading range is part of a longer term basing pattern and probable trend reversal higher. Thus far the MA200 has functioned as good support (~83) and indicators look quite friendly. Increasing long-exposure is justified as long as the support zone around 81/82 holds out. On the upside,...

USD/INR – 10 March 2016

The long-term uptrend is under serious pressure. The recent sell off and ensuing bounce has left a new lower peak well below the MA200. This, together with the ‘death cross’ of the MA200-50 suggests a major trend reversal is getting underway. Note the bearish developments of the USD versus most other crosses (except the feeble EUR). Overall, chances of a break below 66.85 are big and thus...

MSM30 Index (Oman)

Company profile: The Muscat Securities Market Index, MSM30, is a capitalization-weighted index of the 30 most highly capitalized, liquid and profitable companies listed on the Muscat Securities Market. The index was developed with a base level of 1000 as on June 1990.  Related PostsBank Nifty Index update (Mar 9, 2015) Spread: CNX Infra Index (Feb 26, 2015) Reliance Power: huge opportunities (Feb...