Nifty – 17 July 2017

Our earlier trading short-entry obviously did not pan out. The market has resumed the earlier uptrend, albeit without too much conviction. The biggest problem, we think. is the lack of resistance and reliable projection levels. All the main pivots have been surpassed and the index is driving blind… With longer term divergence ever present we see the market as way too risky to buy at current levels,...

Tech Mahindra – 18 May 2017

The overall outlook is still rather neutral with only a slight bearish undertone. The lack of bullish activity while the broader market has been showing gains is a sign of underlying weakness. The slightly lower peaks (575 –> 550 –> 507) support this view. Focus is on the key support zone around 407/397. A major break below this zone triggers a strong sell signal towards minimally...

Nifty – 7 March 2017

Relatively rare in the good old days, False Breaks (or more correctly “flushes’) are quite common nowadays. Since most trade is done by computers and more importantly algorithms and virtually all order flow is sold to internalizers, the good programs have a very good understanding (big data) of where stop-loss and/or stop-buy orders are clustered. In this case even a brief glance at the...

Nifty – 17 Feb 2017

The outlook remains the same over the past days. The substantial bearish divergence and vicinity of the major peaks around 8700 make a correction very likely. Furthermore, the intraday flush-high above the intraday peaks (8830) support this idea considerably. Prepare for a move back to ~8100<>8000. Such a correction is welcome, healthy and not serious for the near term outlook. However,...

Nifty – 8 Feb 2017

To be sure, the outlook around the globe is quite uncertain and absolutely unhealthy; low volume rallies without broader sector strength in combination with various forms of divergence make the primary trends – and thus long-term investing – very tricky indeed. For the Nifty there are two forces: the intraday uptrend and the longer term toppish formation (B-wave). The intraday trend...

Adani Ports – 30 Dec 2016

Although not highly bearish (yet), the outlook on the medium term isn’t too good. The strong recovery since May and the subsequent consolidation phase are part of a much larger counter trend phase on the weekly chart. This counter trend phase is most likely a B-Wave in a larger bearish trend towards ~135. Although triggers at 250 must be cleared before such a decline can take hold, the relative...

Idea Cellular – 7 Dec 2016

Even though the longer term outlook remains fragile, the near term chart does offer some opportunities. Bullish divergence at the latter stages of primary down trend (especially weekly) could ring in a recovery phase on both the near term and longer term charts. Clearing 78.80 should entice buyers back to roughly 102 or even 113 over the next 1-3 months. Since stops can be kept nearby at 69.50 we see...

Nifty – 15 November 2016

Near term pressure has led to a significant down move and a probable end of the long-term uptrend. For the near term a bounce can be expected back to 8300<>8500, but such a rally will not alter the significant deterioration in the broader outlook. Even though it is too early to speak of a primary down trend, the outlook has become way to fragile for a bullish stance for the next 6-12 months....

Nifty – 22 August 2016

The daily chart shows signs a corrective phase is just around the corner. Bearish divergence and global pressure as well as the setting of a slightly lower peak on the near therm support this idea. Any such correction will take place in the weekly (primary) uptrend as long as 8070<>8030 holds out as main support zone. Cover excessive longs and keep a close eye on the mentioned zone; even though...

Nifty – 14 June 2016

Pressure on global markets is mounting, with Japan, HK and Europe looking especially bearish. The US is vulnerable but in a different market fase while the Nifty is somewhat bullish. Even though the Indian markets generally ‘go their own way’, the outlook elsewhere does warrant some caution in a general sense. Purely technical the outlook broadly the same: a moderately bullish daily...