USD/INR – 18 May 2017

A minor recovery as a reaction to the recent sell-off is expected. Such a bounce does not alter the near-term bearish bias as long as the zone 66.55 holds out as first resistance. Focus is on the 63.50 and 60.75 zones for the next ~3 months.

The medium term is more difficult to discern. Aforementioned declines could be part of a complex multi-year counter trend phase (correction in uptrend) or it could be the first step in a long-term trend reversal (i.e. bearish). We’ll have to monitor developments over the next few weeks and months for more signals.

  • Current trend: moderately negative
  • Outlook/expectations: recovery in down trend
  • Strategy: sell the rallies up to 66.55
  • Support: 64.85 / 63.50 / 60.75-
  • Resistance: 66.55 / 67.90 / 68.95+

Daily chart USD/INR

Weekly chart USD/INR