MSM30 Index (Oman)

Company profile: The Muscat Securities Market Index, MSM30, is a capitalization-weighted index of the 30 most highly capitalized, liquid and profitable companies listed on the Muscat Securities Market. The index was developed with a base level of 1000 as on June 1990. 

The recovery attempts of the past few months have failed to breach the MA200 as main resistance. In other words, focus remains to the down side with 6090 being the first reference point. Below that, 5848/5845 is the daily extension level to watch out for. Note that the violent spike of late 2014 make levels considerably less reliable; we try to ignore the spike as much as possible (if-and-when possible). What is clear is the bearish bias until minimally 6620 is taken out.

  • Primary trend: negative
  • Outlook: negative, avoid/sell
  • Support: 6090 / 5845 / 5295 / 4142*
  • Resistance: 6620 / 6750

Weekly chart MSM30 Index (Oman)

muscat_12aug2015

16 December 2015

The massive sell-off of the past weeks has brought prices at the major pivots of 2011-2012 as well as the 262% extension level coinciding aroung 5410. Perhaps some cooling and/or recovery sets in. A significant base or turn around is not expected at all. More than a ‘dead cat bounce’ towards 5820, 6070 is not expected. Even a rally to 6420  will not effectively alter the trend on daily or weekly basis.

Continue to avoid exposure if possible. The last target of the current trend lies at 4142. Once the market engages in a recovery and sets a lower peak, new targets can be calculated.

  • Primary trend: negative
  • Outlook: strong down trend, avoid/sell-rallies
  • Support: 5410 / 5295 / 4142*
  • Resistance: 5820 / 6070 / 6420

Weekly chart MSM30 Index (Oman)

msm30_16dec2014

7 December 2014

Today’s losses of over 4% fit within the medium term outlook. A major long-term Wave cycle completed last month, the internal trend line and former pivots have been taken out and prices are trading well below the (declining) MA200. Despite the recent sell-off, down side potential remains large. 5999 is the first target, below that strong support is not found until about 5410. All rallies up to 6885 offer selling opportunities.

  • Primary trend: negative
  • Outlook: strong down trend, avoid/sell-rallies
  • Support: 5999* / 5410 / 5295
  • Resistance: 6780 / 7150 / 7215

Weekly chart MSM30 Index (Oman)

msm30_7dec2014

26 November 2014

Investors should prepare for a significant correction. Since the beginning of the year the market has completed a Wave 5 cycle, set a divergence peak and more recently topping out around 7150. The index is ripe for a major down turn. Dipping below 6885<>6850 signals the start of a move back to 6295 (minor pivot) and 5999 (1st extension) on a 6-month horizon.

Exit-long and short-entry below 6850.

  • Primary trend: neutral
  • Outlook: major trend reversal likely, exit-long or entry short
  • Support: 6850 / 6295 / 5999*
  • Resistance: 7150 / 7215 / 7555

Weekly chart MSM30 Index (Oman)

muscat_26nov2014

5 August 2014

The index is engaged in a Wave 5 uptrend. Although they can continue for some time, new buying is considered risky and basically unwarranted. Important targets come in at 7625 and 7880. So there is still some potential, but not excessively so.

Hold existing longs with trailing stops (7105 max) and monitor developments around mentioned levels carefully. Above average risk for a major peak and considerable pressure in the zone 7625<>7880.

  • Primary trend: moderately positive (late phase)
  • Outlook: Wave 5 uptrend, hold longs with trailing stops
  • Support: 7105 / 6900 / 6700-
  • Resistance: 7625* / 7880*

Weekly chart MSM30 Index (Oman)

msm30_5aug2014